Arthur Hayes Forecast Shocks Markets: Will the Fed’s Moves Send BTC to $250K?

Arthur Hayes, the ex-CEO of BitMEX, has made a fiery prediction for Bitcoin prices, saying it will hit $250,000 before the end of 2025. Hayes believes this is possible based on the recent turn of events in the policies of the Federal Reserve, which he interprets as leaning towards fiscal dominance and thereby, de facto, quantitative easing (QE). In his latest essay, Hayes recalls that the Fed is slowing down the QT and now reinvests mortgage-backed securities into US Treasuries. However, while he expects a pullback to between $70,000-75,000, he is still optimistic about macroeconomics igniting Bitcoin’s explosion.

Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach $250,000 Amid Fed Policy Shifts.

Ex-CEO of BitMEX Arthur Hayes has put his head on the block, predicting declines for Bitcoin may be up to $250,000 until the end of 2025. He contends that the trend was inspired by the Reserve’s recent changes, which he interprets to mean structural returns to fiscal dominance and more-or-less QE. Hayes forecasts that, because of the current decision to slow Quantitative Tightening or QT and to reinvest the proceeds received on the mortgage-backed securities into the US Treasuries, much liquidity will be injected back into the financial system, which historically favors hard assets like Bitcoin. 

Hayes calls this policy set-up seemingly one of ‘treasury QE’. He puts a perspective on the remaining $660 billion treasury supply injection into the dollar liquidity potentially influencing the bullish event for Bitcoin explosions. From the Hayes forecast, Bitcoin stands to gain from that change in monetary regime, given its scarcity and having no connection to conventional financial systems. Hayes parallels gold’s reaction to QE in 2008-2009, predicting Bitcoin to undergo a delayed, but dramatic repricing coinciding with the effects of liquidity injections.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Can BTC Reach $250K? Key Levels to Watch

The trading session of Bitcoin on March 31 begins with a bearish momentum. The price stands at around $84,278.57, with a small increase of +0.04%. Price action reveals a clearly defined uptrend, currently testing a significant level of resistance right around the $83,950 mark. The breakout from the previous consolidation mark at the level of $81,500, which was acting as a soft support for prices, was the trigger for this move. RSI shows neither an overbought nor an oversold status of assets, but there were occasions of overbought and oversold.

Chart 1, analysed by anushrivarshney2613, published on TradingView, April 1, 2025

If Bitcoin crosses the resistance at $84,500, it will trend to even higher levels as a result of optimistic forecasts in the longer run. In a more futuristic perspective, Arthur Hayes, as well as many other people, has put the Bitcoin price prediction at year-end at a staggering $250,000. However, this is subject to policy decisions. Continued monetary easing could provide a favorable environment for Bitcoin to keep running strongly. Otherwise, if resistance is not broken, a retracement would be expected toward the support area around $81,321. 

The Future of Bitcoin: Hayes Forecasts $250,000 Amid Fed Policy Changes

Although the circumstances around the bitcoin price prediction seem uncertain, Arthur Hayes has thought otherwise and exposed possible changes in policies that were introduced by the Reserve. He expects Bitcoin to hit $250,000 per coin by the end of the year 2025, thanks to the Fed’s transition into quantitative easing as well as the liquidity that would be present in the markets. There is widespread social-political sentiment for Bitcoin, particularly since it is hoping to create some wild swings.

Institutional adoption and potential future users considering Bitcoin as a strategic reserve may all lift demand for Bitcoin, but there is great price volatility expected due to the expectation of wild swings. As more and more entities begin to view Bitcoin as an asset protecting them against inflation and economic uncertainty, Bitcoin will continue to firm its position as a mainstream asset.