Bitcoin to the Moon? Analysts Give It 85% Chance of Hitting New High in Six Months

After experiencing a period of declines, bitcoin (BTC) has been recovering and continued to maintain an upward trajectory in recent months. This momentum has been mainly fueled by inflows from the recently launched spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and growing institutional interest in the digital asset.

While bitcoin has continued to rally, peaking at 52,800 recently, the digital asset still has a long way from reaching its all-time high (ATH) of $69,000 – achieved on November 10, 2021 (over two years ago).

However, analysts are expecting further rallies in the price of BTC that will see it surpass this previous high.

85% Odds

In a recent analysis, on-chain analyst IntoTheBlock gave bitcoin an 85% chance of hitting new ATH “within” the next six months.

The Bitcoin halving is set to happen in April 2024. Here's what to expect👇
First, let's reflect on the Previous Halving:
➖ In 2020, after the last halving, the block reward dropped to 6.25 BTC
➖ Bitcoin's hash rate dropped by 30% within two weeks.
➖ Bitcoin's miner difficulty… pic.twitter.com/6hIsjAVPKK

— IntoTheBlock (@intotheblock) February 16, 2024

According to IntoTheBlock, this bullish outlook will be driven by several factors, including the upcoming Bitcoin halving event, the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, and institutional interest in the asset.

That Catalysts 

Reflecting on how the previous halving took the price of bitcoin to an ATH within eight months, IntoTheBlock stated that, in a similar pattern, the next halving (expected to happen in April 2024) would propel the asset to a new high. This, according to the analyst, will be possible as the event will cut the bitcoin’s block reward in half, impacting miners’ selling pressure and reducing the asset’s inflation rate.

According to IntoTheBlock, the Fed‘s anticipated rate cut could also contribute to bitcoin’s new high. Rate cuts generally inject more money into an economy, potentially increasing investors’ demand for riskier assets like BTC. Price increases always follow increased demand for an asset.

The Fed said rates will likely be cut in the coming months.

The third catalyst is the strong institutional growing interest in bitcoin. Since several spot Bitcoin ETFs went live last month, there have been positive inflows into the products from institutional investors. These inflows signal increasing demand for the products. While these players have contributed to the recent surge in the price of BTC, IntoTheBlock expects them to play a more significant role in propelling the crypto asset to a new high within the next six months.

Bitcoin was hovering around 52,000 at press time.