Analysts Detect Bitcoin Bull Cycle Peak—Are Traders Ignoring the Red Flags?

Bitcoin’s record-setting run above $109,000 in January 2024 seems like a distant memory now, as the cryptocurrency slides to around $82,000. With a subtle weekly decline and cooling market momentum, several leading analysts are now questioning whether the Bitcoin bull cycle is topping out. A deeper dive into volume ratios and RSI trends is offering critical insights that traders can’t afford to ignore.

Volume Ratio Flashes Early Warning Signs

Market behavior is often best understood by looking at what the volume tells us. According to CryptoQuant analyst “Crypto Dan,” Bitcoin’s trading volume over the past 6 to 12 months is hinting at a possible market shift. The Bitcoin volume ratio, which represents long-term capital inflows, is entering a second distinct decline phase. Historically, this second drop usually marks the climax of bull markets, often preceding massive corrections.

The trend indicates investor enthusiasm may be fading. The first drop signaled the end of Bitcoin’s early bull rally, and the second, now unfolding, could mark the ultimate top of the cycle. While not conclusive, the timing aligns with previous bull run reversals. Traders are increasingly cautious, especially when similar setups in past cycles triggered large-scale sell-offs.

RSI Trends Tell a Different Story

Despite weakening volume metrics, some technical analysts are less bearish. Renowned chartist “RektCapital” believes the Bitcoin RSI trend is showing a new pattern of strength. Historically, the monthly RSI level of 60 acted as a ceiling during prior cycle peaks—in August 2019 and again in December 2020. However, this time around, RSI 60 is serving as a base of support, not resistance.

This shift could signal that Bitcoin is in a more resilient phase compared to past cycles. Supporting this idea, analyst Javon Marks pointed out that Bitcoin’s current chart structure is forming a bullish continuation pattern. In his view, the market may still have gas left in the tank for one more explosive move upward, possibly challenging the $100K mark again.

Momentum Wanes, But Bulls Aren’t Giving Up Yet

Despite short-term bearish signals, not all analysts are ready to declare the Bitcoin bull cycle over. Marks remains optimistic, pointing to historical patterns where Bitcoin consolidated for weeks before launching into another rally. He argues that current patterns suggest accumulation, not distribution.

Moreover, broader market dynamics—including institutional buying, ETF flow data, and macroeconomic policy—continue to support long-term upside. While speculative energy might be fading, foundational interest in Bitcoin remains steady, potentially providing the fuel for another breakout.

Conclusion: A Critical Phase in the Bitcoin Bull Cycle

Whether or not we are witnessing the peak of the Bitcoin bull cycle, traders should tread carefully. Volume ratio declines and a critical RSI support test make for a high-stakes scenario. Bullish or bearish, one thing is clear—Bitcoin’s next big move will set the tone for the rest of 2025. In the end, whether this is a healthy pause or the start of a correction depends largely on upcoming volume and RSI shifts. With April’s performance under close scrutiny, the next few weeks will be pivotal in confirming if the cycle has truly topped out—or if Bitcoin is simply gathering strength for one more climb.