Altcoin Market Up 10% in 2 Weeks, Yet Few Outperform BTC – Can It Break the $853B March High?

Whilst the recent surge in several altcoins has raised hopes, a closer examination of market indications suggests this might not be the right moment to become unduly optimistic. Ethereum, the most popular altcoin, is seriously underperforming. However, the dominance of Bitcoin continues to climb. Altcoin investors need to be on the lookout for the next move of the altcoin market because important indicators such as the Altseason Index, the Ethereum-to-Bitcoin ratio (ETH/BTC), and the Bitcoin Dominance Index (BTC.D) are indicating bearish conditions.

Rises in Bitcoin Dominance: A Danger to Altcoins?

The primary warning sign lies in the Bitcoin Dominance Index. Currently standing above 63.8%, this figure is more than a number; it’s a statement about investor behavior. Historically, when BTC.D rises, capital flows away from altcoins and into Bitcoin. This is particularly concerning because this 63.8% level once acted as strong resistance in 2021 but has now flipped into support. The implication? Bitcoin is reclaiming control of the market narrative, making it harder for altcoins to compete.

Chart 1 – ETH/BTC price, provided by AMBCrypto_TA, published on TradingView, April 22, 2025.

Meanwhile, Ethereum’s performance has been disappointing. ETH/BTC has dropped 56.6% since its January peak of $3,744, and it’s trading near levels last seen in mid-2019. Such a drastic decline in the ETH/BTC pair casts a long shadow over altcoin prospects, given Ethereum’s traditional role in leading altcoin momentum.

Altcoin Market Hits Resistance: Can It Overcome the $780B Barrier?

Though some altcoins have shown signs of life, the broader picture remains worrisome. The TOTAL3 chart, which reflects total altcoin market capitalization excluding Ethereum, shows the market has rebounded from April lows near $750 billion but remains in a bearish trend. To break out of this slump, the altcoin market must surpass the $780 billion resistance and then the March high of $853 billion. Without this, gains are likely to be short-lived.

Chart 2 – Crypto total market cap excluding BTC and ETH, provided by AMBCrypto_TA, published on TradingView, April 22, 2025.

Supporting this cautious view is the Altseason Index, which stands at a mere 20. A value of 20 clearly places the market in “Bitcoin Season,” far from the threshold of 75 required to declare it an altcoin season. In short, fewer than 25% of the top 50 altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin in the past 90 days, a sobering statistic for bulls.

Chart 3 – Altcoin Season Index, published on BlockchainCenter.Net, April 23, 2025.

Additionally, declining network activity and falling on-chain fees for Ethereum reinforce the bearish narrative. These fundamental weaknesses, combined with poor performance against Bitcoin, suggest that investor confidence in altcoins remains fragile.

Can Altcoins Break Free from Bitcoin’s Grip – Or Will BTC Keep Dominating

For a true altcoin rally to take hold, Ethereum must stop bleeding value against Bitcoin and regain investor confidence. Until ETH/BTC reverses trend and the Altseason Index rises above 50, altcoins will likely struggle to outperform the king of crypto. Can altcoins break free from Bitcoin’s dominance without a resurgence from Ethereum? If these metrics improve, altcoins may find the strength to carve out their own path, but that scenario still seems distant.

What’s Next: Stay Alert, Not Euphoric

The current optimism in the altcoin market may be premature. The AVAX and SOL surges are promising, but broader indicators do not support a sustained bull run. With Ethereum in decline, Bitcoin dominance rising, and the Altseason Index deep in bearish territory, altcoin investors would do well to stay cautious. The market may offer short-term opportunities, but the long-term trend still favors Bitcoin. Until structural changes appear, restraint might be the smartest play.