Altcoin ETF Hype Builds as Analysts Eye 90% Approval Odds for Solana, Litecoin, and Ethereum, but US CPI Data Looms as Key Market Test

Markets entered June with strong optimism surrounding altcoin ETFs, especially for Solana, Litecoin, and XRP. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas raised hopes with an analysis of a 90% chance for Solana and Litecoin for spot ETF approval. XRP follows closely with an 85% probability. Dogecoin stands at 80%, while Cardano, Polkadot, HBAR, and Avalanche trail slightly behind with a 75% likelihood. CoinGlass data revealed Ethereum dominating the derivatives market, surpassing Bitcoin in contract volume and liquidations. However, market sentiment remains cautious as investors await the U.S. CPI data due today. Any surprise in inflation numbers could disrupt the ongoing ETF-driven momentum.

Altcoin ETF Summer Nearing, Solana Leads in Approval Odds

Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg’s ETF analyst, has labeled the market mood as an incoming “Altcoin ETF Summer.” Balchunas placed Solana and Litecoin at the top of the ETF approval ladder with a 90% probability each. XRP follows at 85%, while Dogecoin holds a strong 80% possibility. Other altcoins like Cardano, Polkadot, HBAR, and Avalanche also show promising signs with 75% approval odds. Newer assets such as Sui remain less likely, at only 60%. Tron’s ETF review timeline appears delayed, with no expectations before 2026. The ETF liquidity landscape is expanding rapidly as investor appetite grows. Increased optimism points to faster institutional entry into altcoin exposure through regulated products like spot ETFs.

Ethereum Overtakes Bitcoin in Derivatives Volume

Ethereum dominated the derivatives trading space in the past 24 hours, as per Coinglass data. ETH contract volume touched $111 billion, surpassing Bitcoin’s $87.5 billion volume. Ethereum also led in liquidation activity, with $131 million compared to Bitcoin’s $62 million. This surge underscores Ethereum’s increasing trader interest and its positioning ahead of a potential ETH ETF approval. Market analysts view this as a bullish indicator for Ethereum’s near-term performance.

ETH’s growing derivative activity also reflects heightened institutional demand, as institutional players increase leverage-based exposure. Ethereum’s role in the DeFi ecosystem and upcoming staking developments may have fueled this momentum. Moreover, crypto enthusiasts urge the SEC to act faster on ETF approvals. Clearer regulations boost confidence, increasing chances for spot crypto ETF launches. Along with these, the U.S.-China trading is taking new shifts, uplifting the crypto industry.

CPI Report to Decide Short-Term Market Direction

Cas Abbé, Web3 Growth Manager at Binance, highlighted three key outcomes for the upcoming CPI data release on June 11 at 8:30 AM ET. The expected CPI rate is 2.5%, up from last month’s 2.3%. Abbé’s scenarios offer a structured look; if CPI > 2.5%, a sell-off is likely, as the chances of a Fed rate cut decline. The prediction continues with CPI = 2.5%, then a temporary dip is expected, followed by a buying opportunity. 

Source: Cas Abbé X Post on June 11, 2025

Additionally, if CPI < 2.5%, the market is likely to show a pump-and-dump pattern, closing the day in green. Only a CPI figure above 2.5% poses a threat to bullish sentiment. In all other cases, ETF liquidity could continue to strengthen, especially for altcoins riding high on ETF speculation.

Bitcoin Volatility Declines Ahead of Key Macro Event

Axel Adler, market analyst at CryptoQuant, reported a decline in Bitcoin’s volatility, measured through the 200 ATR index. This drop signals cautious trading behavior as investors await U.S. inflation data. Lower volatility generally points to an upcoming breakout or strong directional move. If CPI figures surprise on the upside, the market could see reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts.

Source: Axel Adler X Post on June 11, 2025

That shift would pressure both Bitcoin and altcoin prices, including those awaiting ETF approval. Bitcoin’s quiet phase reflects the broader risk-off sentiment, even as Ethereum and other assets continue showing strength in ETF-related speculation.

Crypto Market Optimism Strong, But Investors Waiting for CPI Report

Market optimism around the ETH ETF and broader institutional demand remains dominant. Altcoins like Solana, Litecoin, and XRP are poised for major institutional breakthroughs. Ethereum’s strong derivatives presence confirms its pivotal role in the ETF narrative. However, June 11’s CPI reading could act as a turning point. A higher-than-expected figure may cool the current momentum and reduce hopes of policy easing. Volatility in Bitcoin remains low, indicating that traders await confirmation before placing new bets. For now, enthusiasm for ETFs leads the sentiment. But macro data, particularly inflation trends, will determine whether the rally sustains or stalls in the short term.

On June 12, ONUS via X shared that the U.S. May CPI comes in lower than expected, with a 0.1% MoM rise versus the 0.2% forecast. Year-over-year, CPI increased 2.4%, also under the expected 2.5%. With consumer prices cooling, inflationary pressure seems to be easing and could give the Fed room to ease policy. Bitcoin holds above $100,000 for 30 consecutive days, driven by strong inflows from institutions, ETFs, and long-term investors.