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Altcoin Dominance Tracks the PMI: Why This Cycle Has No Real Altseason

By

Triparna Baishnab

Triparna Baishnab

Altcoin dominance moves closely with the US PMI. A weak 48.2 PMI in late 2025 explains why altcoins lag while Bitcoin dominates this cycle.

Altcoin Dominance Tracks the PMI: Why This Cycle Has No Real Altseason

Quick Take

Summary is AI generated, newsroom reviewed.

  • Altcoin dominance has closely mirrored the US ISM Manufacturing PMI since 2019.

  • A contracting PMI at 48.2 for November 2025 aligns with Bitcoin’s strong dominance near 59 percent.

  • Weak macroeconomic conditions reduce liquidity flowing into altcoins.

  • A sustained PMI recovery above 50 could revive altcoin performance in early 2026.

In its analysis, Crypto Rover demonstrates that there is a strong association between the dominance of altcoins and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. In case the PMI is an indicator of economic growth, above 55 in general, the altcoins perform well. As the PMI is going down, the altcoins are also declining. The comparison of the charts indicates that this relationship has been steady and stable since 2019 meaning that the dynamics of the macroeconomic conditions directly determine the liquidity cycles of altcoin.

Existing PMI Contraction

The most recent PMI score of November 2025 is 48.2, which indicates that further shrinkage of the US manufacturing industry is observed. This coincides with the fact that, Bitcoin is leading by approximately 59 percent and the overall vulnerability of the altcoin market. According to analysts of sites such as CoinEdition and Phemex, Bitcoin is finding it easier and altcoins are having an even harder time capturing capital in volatile macroeconomic times.

PMI Recovery would do to Altcoins

The trend of the past indicates that altcoins will experience a resurgence in case the PMI surges above 50 by 2026 and the economy returns to growth. A deep recovery of over 55 would be even greater and would lead to a mass change of liquidity outward away of substantial assets like BTC and ETH and into riskier altcoins. Until now, the macro environment remains in support of Bitcoin dominance.

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