All Eyes on TON: Can It Maintain Its Bullish Trajectory?

Toncoin (TON) has been making headlines after a sharp recovery in recent days. Following positive news around Telegram founder Pavel Durov’s travel approval, TON rallied impressively from $2.59 to $3.66 marking an over 40% surge. But with the bullish momentum cooling slightly and TON trading at $3.41 at press time, investors are now wondering: can this uptrend be sustained, or is a pullback on the horizon?

A Cooldown After the Rally

After an exciting surge, Toncoin’s price has slipped 1.25% in the last 24 hours, indicating some market hesitation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also dropped from overbought levels to 53.31, signaling weakening buying pressure. This isn’t unusual after a big rally markets often need time to consolidate and catch their breath.

Moreover, the On-Balance-Volume (OBV) remains negative at -835K, hinting that the recent price surge may have lacked strong accumulation. Weekend trading showed volume spikes, but as of now, it lacks the excitement. Unless broader participation picks up, TON might enter a consolidation phase or see a short-term retracement.

Holder’s Confidence Remains Strong

Despite short-term cooling, Toncoin’s fundamentals paint a positive picture. Profitability metrics show that 73.82% of TON tokens are “in the money” meaning the majority of holders bought below the current price of around $3.41. Only 12.25% of addresses are “out of the money,” indicating minimal selling pressure or overhead resistance.

This implies that the majority of the holders are sitting on profits, which ensures more robust confidence and less potential for panic selling. Moreover, the Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio commonly used to determine whether a token is over or undervalued indicated a definite dip in early March, just before the price breakout. This decline in NVT indicates that Toncoin was undervalued, and the price boom later corrected this disparity.

On-Chain Activity Supports the Bullish Narrative

Looking beyond price charts, on-chain activity tells an encouraging story. According to DeFiLlama, Toncoin’s Total Value Locked (TVL) rose from $140 million to nearly $170 million between March 15-17, signaling renewed investor confidence. This jump in TVL is often a leading indicator of growing faith in a blockchain ecosystem.

Additionally, Santiment data highlights a sharp rise in whale transactions and sustained high social media volume before the price breakout. These factors combined suggest that speculation and market sentiment are aligning in favor of Toncoin. The price breaking above $3.40 with increasing trading volume further validates that the rally wasn’t purely hype-driven but had solid participation.

Conclusion: Is Toncoin Set for More Gains?

Toncoin currently sits at an important crossroads. With solid on-chain metrics, high holder profitability, rising TVL, and increased whale activity, the foundation for further gains appears strong. While short-term pullbacks are possible and even healthy the overall picture remains bullish.

Unless sentiment suddenly changes or adverse macroeconomic occurrences happen, Toncoin seems firmly on its way to continuing its ascent. Investors need to keep a close eye on trading volumes, whale activity, and general sentiment to see whether TON’s rally still has room to breathe.