$481.9M Ethereum Contracts Expiring Today— Can the Pectra Upgrade Reverse ETH’s 20% Decline?

Ethereum’s market is experiencing major shifts, with key signs indicating both risks and potential gains. With a vast number of Ethereum contracts expiring today, possible price swings are on the horizon. Social sentiment for Ethereum has hit its lowest point this year, aligning with the broader crypto market decline. However, some analysts believe this could signal an upcoming recovery. Experts argue that sentiment often trails behind price changes, suggesting a possible market bottom. Meanwhile, upcoming technical advancements and growing institutional interest could drive growth. 

ETH Market Sentiment Hits Yearly Low—A Warning Sign?

Indicators and market data for Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency and the number-one altcoin, are showing some worrying signs. This is because the number of Ethereum contracts expiring today is 223,395. These contracts represent $481.9 million in value. The put-to-call ratio for these contracts is 0.72, which represents a bullish notion among these investors. This is because any put-to-call ratio below one shows the higher numbers of buy options compared to the sell options. These contracts show a maximum pain point of $2300, which represents the price where investors see the most financial damage.

Graph 1- Provided by Santiment, published on Tradingview, March 7, 2025.

Based on Graph 1, the social sentiment of ETH has also been decreasing, hitting a yearly low. It can be argued that Ethereum market trends are showing the broader market’s sentiment. This is because most cryptocurrencies have lost value when compared to the start of 2025. However, when compared to top coins based on their market cap, ETH’s underperformance can be noticeable. The value of ETH has gone down 20% in the last month, while BTC saw only a 10% decline. Based on Santiment’s statement, however, the low social sentiment can be good news, and ETH can soon bounce back.

When Fear Peaks, Is a Rally Around the Corner?

The Santiment’s social sentiment tracker can analyze recent discussions about cryptocurrencies on various social media platforms like X and Telegram. By doing so, it has found the data highlighted in Graph 1, which shows declining social sentiment for ETH. However, this platform has stated that based on the analysis, the bearishness related to ETH is a good sign. It added that the investors who hold Ethereum can expect a turnaround when the market stabilizes.  

Some industry professionals have also supported this view of Ethereum market trends. Douro Labs CEO Mike Cahill is a key figure in the Pyth Network’s development. In his opinion, we should look at short-term and long-term variables separately. He also highlighted how, historically, assets usually reach low sentiment as they hit the market’s bottom. This is because price performance affects sentiment and not the other way around. An analyst from Kronos Research, Dominick John, also agrees with this sentiment. He mentions that extreme negativity often shows the bottom of a market cycle. 

$10 Million Investment & Major Upgrade: Case for ETH Rally

There are also some other external and internal elements that point to a possible surge in ETH’s near future. First is the Pectra upgrade, which had a second testnet deployment recently and is launching on the mainnet next month. Second is the recent $10 million purchase of ETH by World Libert Finance. Such a big investment from the Trump-owned crypto firm can set a positive trend for institutional investors.

From Volatility to Stability: Ethereum’s Path Forward

Ethereum’s recovery depends on key factors. The upcoming Pectra upgrade aims to improve efficiency and attract developers and investors. A balanced strategy remains essential for investors. Ethereum contracts expiringPrice swings may persist, but long-term prospects stay strong. Advancements in Ethereum’s technology and rising institutional involvement could shape its future. As stability returns, ETH’s ability to regain momentum will rely on leveraging these developments and restoring investor confidence.