$151M SUI Token Unlock Sparks Volatility — Can Bulls Break $2.52 or Will Bears Take Over?

SUI displayed resilience following the April 1 SUI token unlock, staying above its crucial support range of $2.10–$2.20. This cryptocurrency currently trades around $2.24 despite overall market bearishness, but faces difficulty surpassing the 20-day Exponential Moving Average at $2.41. The recent token release introduced potential selling pressure, yet SUI has maintained stability, successfully avoiding a major breakdown.

SUI technical analysis currently offers a mixed perspective. The RSI stays at 45.09, suggesting weak but improving momentum. While SUI has not yet confirmed a bullish reversal, it repeatedly tested resistance near the $2.50 level. A more definitive uptrend might appear if bulls successfully drive prices past $2.52, targeting $2.67 next.

The Impact of the April 1 SUI Token Unlock

Around $151 million in SUI tokens were unlocked on April 1, sparking concerns about a possible price decrease. Large token unlocks historically create selling pressure because recipients often sell their holdings, causing temporary price drops. In this case, however, SUI defied expectations by maintaining its support zone, indicating the market has mostly absorbed the new supply.

Some traders expected a significant sell-off, but SUI network activity offered a counteracting force. Total Value Locked (TVL) within SUI-based DeFi protocols increased to $1.295 billion, accompanied by higher trading volume on decentralized exchanges. This suggests demand remains relatively strong despite the massive token unlock, possibly reducing short-term downside risks.

Technical Indicators and Market Trends

SUI remains in a broader downtrend despite holding key support. It continues to trade below the 20-day EMA at $2.41 and the 50-day Simple Moving Average at $2.67. Multiple rejection candles appearing at higher price points signal strong resistance alongside continuous selling pressure. Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator is approaching a bearish alignment, strengthening the cautious view.

However, early indications of potential bullish momentum exist. An inverse head and shoulders pattern observed by analysts implies a breakout over $2.52 might initiate a reversal. If this scenario occurs, SUI price prediction shows the subsequent major upside objectives are at $2.67 and $2.86. On the other hand, failing to maintain the $2.10–$2.20 support could lead to a retest of the psychological $2.00 level.

Can SUI Reclaim Higher Levels?

The market remains uncertain, yet SUI’s recent stability implies it might be ready for a breakout. According to SUI price predictions, a surge targeting $2.80 seems achievable if buying pressure strengthens and the price surpasses $2.52. Ichimoku Cloud analysis shows this cryptocurrency hovers close to a pivotal breakout point, with the potential to shift into a bullish phase if trading volume supports the move.

Chart 1 – Provided by Ichimoku Cloud, published on TradingView, April 3, 2025.

Alternatively, increasing selling pressure could bring renewed bearish momentum to SUI. Breaking below the $2.10 level would expose additional downside targets near $1.96, a level last visited in early March. For now, traders are closely watching volume trends along with macroeconomic factors that could influence SUI’s next move.

A Critical Moment for SUI

SUI demonstrated resilience by holding above $2.30 immediately following the April 1 SUI token unlock, yet significant challenges persist. This cryptocurrency must surpass immediate resistance at $2.52 to confirm a bullish reversal. Failing to preserve support, meanwhile, might cause further declines, making the $2.10 level a critical point to monitor for investors.

Current market sentiment appears mixed as SUI technical analysis points in both directions. Growing network activity and rising TVL provide bullish momentum, but selling pressure remains a concern. Traders should watch for confirmation of either a breakout or breakdown before making their next move in the volatile SUI market.